On the Record: Predictions
Discuss these predictions with the predictors themselves. If you decide you disagree, you can challenge a prediction and turn it into Long Bet.
NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONPREDICTOR
910.
I predict that Canada will be a failed state by 02042.
20 years
02022-02042
Jordan C Lewans
909.
In 5 years, a bitcoin will be worth less than $100US.
5 years
02022-02027
Boran A Akin
908.
Fewer that 25% of states with Roe v. Wade anti-abortion trigger bans will implement any meaningful improvements for child-related care or support within 3 years.
3 years
02022-02025
Joseph A Miller
907.
Within the next 25 years the United States of America will no longer consist of 50 States
2 years
02022-02024
Jeremy P Day
906.
In 2030, the share of world energy produced by solar will be < 2%, conditional on real gross world product (in 2015 USD at market exchange rates) being not less than $118 trillion. End date as soon as reputable data (World Bank, IEA, BP etc) for 2030 are available.
? years
02022-???
Carl Lumma
905.
By 2080, a mathematician would win the Fields Medal before the age of 22, thus becoming the first undergraduate winner of the Fields Medal.
59 years
02022-02081
Shengtong Zhang
904.
The manufacturing of new internal combustion engine automobiles will be illegal, or there will be a law requiring that their manufacture cease by some specified date in the future everywhere in the US.
32 years
02022-02054
Bay Futures Class
903.
Lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) will no longer be a U.S. Federal schedule 1 drug and in 15 states it will be legal for medicinal and/or recreational use.
34 years
02022-02056
Bay Futures Class
902.
Humans will not find features of an exoplanet or other object >1 light-year away which, according to a majority of astrobiologists, is convincing evidence of life, intelligence, or technology; nor will we detect any other electromagnetic signal satisfying the same requirement.
22 years
02022-02044
Karl Coryat
901.
The Department of Defense will not publicly release unambiguous evidence, recorded from multiple sensors, of objects in Earth's atmosphere exhibiting >20G acceleration, OR >100km/h subsurface travel, OR anti-gravity, OR FTL/nonlocal translation, OR extraterrestrial intelligence.
10 years
02022-02032
Karl Coryat
