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The discussions on Long Bets last as long as the Bets. What reads well over time?

Long Bets are about ideas, expressed by persons. Respect for both is appropriate in these discussions. Debating ideas is fine; attacking persons is not. Relevance counts. Take account of posterity's opinion, which will be showing up soon enough.

The main news April 25, 02002, on this website is the inauguration of discussion---two main ones and one for each Recorded or Open Bet.

Lots of churn in the world these weeks---mideast, war on terror, political and economic events in the US, Europe, and Asia; science breakthroughs....

A lot of it is perfect for short Long Bets. So far the shortest bet on offer is 5 years, and the longest 148 years. I'd love to see some 2-year bets emerge, so we can all get practice seeing a Long Bet through to completion in the near term. That experience will inform how to shape the longer bets better.

And someone gets to triumph rather quickly.

Any candidates?...

Long Bets now has a mailing list to keep you informed when we launch exciting new features. If you would like to be on this list please send mail to services@longbets.org with Subscribe in the subject line. Thanks!

Inspired by user Eric Dennis, a discussion for prototyping bets has been added.

Meanwhile in Bet 12, John Horgan's bet about no Nobel for a Theory of Everything by 2020, a number of distinguished scientists are checking in, including Lee Smolin, who almost took Horgan's bet a couple months ago. Instead, Smolin says, he is betting his career that Horgan is wrong.

Ray Kurzeweil, who is betting against Mitchell Kapor in Bet 1 that "A computer - or "machine intelligence" - will pass the Turing Test by 2029" has been inducted into the National Inventors Hall of Fame.
http://www.invent.org/hall_of_fame/1_3_0_induction_kurzweil.asp

Full Press Release at: http://www.invent.org/images/images_hof/induction/docs/KurzweilPR.doc

In just five weeks Bet 8 COULD be over ,with Mike Elliott triumphant , if the US men's soccer team happens to prevail. It would be just the Red Sox' normal luck to win the World Series next fall and still have lost out on this bet and punished fan Ted Danson one more time.

The bettors in and around the Theory of Everything bet are responding admirably to one discussant's request for references, citing books and breaking-news websites.

Such a cloud of references is worth developing around nearly every bet.

Thrilling to accommodate you -- I am a fan of yours and this perhaps will bring me into your good company. I learned one of my most important rules for living, that I've shared with many people, when Peter Coyote gave you an acting lesson to loosen you up on your book tour, and he said for you to remember, "It's not what you do; it's what you do next." As in acting, so in life. I submitted my two year bet today: "By 2004, the existence of a non-human intelligence that understands us and and can manipulate matter on Earth will be established as signaling to us in the crop circle phenomenon." For a doorway to the phenomenon, get on my site: http://www.mightycompanions.org/cropcircles. You also might have a look at what else I'm doing to rattle humanity's cage: http://www.theconversation.org.

Suzanne Taylor's bet is now in The Arena, with $5,000 behind it and the shortest end-date on the site---just two years.

When she gets a taker and they agree on terms, and the stakes are put up, and the bet goes formally On The Record, the end-date will be exactly two years from that date---unless the bettors specify otherwise.

Suzanne Taylor's two-year bet about crop circles was in the Arena only temporarily, until she realized that she would have to put up the $5,000 at the time the bet was accepted. Since she didn't want to do that, the bet was withdrawn.

Author John Horgan bets that no one will win a Nobel Prize for a unified theory by 2020, and author Michio Kaku sees it as quite possible. The discussion already includes other astrophysicists. It's Bet 12.

Sheldon Renan is betting $1,000 that the current exponential doubling of computer capability every 1.5 years will keep up every decade for five more decades. As I read his terms, if the pace slackens for even a decade, he loses. It's Bet 70, discussion now open.

The US Senate is said to be near approving Yucca Mountain in Nevada as the site for storage/dispoal of high energy nuclear waste..

This seems like a prime subject for Long Bets. Shorter ones might be about whether any storage will in fact happen there. Longer ones might be about what happens with the waste stored in the site over time. (Some have proposed that it may be mined for energy within a century, for example.)

There's a nice mention of Long Bets in the Sunday New York Times "Week in Review" section. The page 3 piece, "Blinded by Science," by Patricia Leigh Brown notes the growing trend of impossible-seeming science---spider's silk from goat milk, and such--and opines we might be getting used to the surreal.

She refers to the Long Bets site as a place to check in on debate about seeming impossibilities and also see what turns out to be in fact possible or impossible over time.

There's an excellent article at Salon dealing with the efforts at the Department of Energy to "design effective warning structures capable of lasting 10,000 years (to keep unknowing people away)... Using archeological sites as 'historical analogues." I imagine that Stewart Brand already knows about this, but it might prove interesting to other readers. The article is at http://www.salon.com/people/feature/2002/05/10/yucca_mountain/index1.html

Thanks for the pointer. I hadn't seen that current read on fairly old news (1991).

It's a shame the writer Cruikshank took a strictly humorous approach to the subject---he mocks all the 10,000-year signage solutions without addressing the seriousness of the issue nor offering any better ideas of his own. By that omission, his piece winds up merely wishing that existing nuclear waste were not a problem, and it promotes a stance of avoidance of long-term thinking. Irresponsible on both counts.

There's a nice article about Long Bets by Amy Harmon, consisting largely of particular bets and their arguments, in the "Week in Review" section of the Sunday New York Times today, 1 September 02002.

Viewable at
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/01/weekinreview/01WORD.html

Anyone who came to this site from that article is welcome to comment about the match or mismatch between what they expected based on the article and what they actually found here.

"The first Professor of Physics at the University of Queensland, Professor Thomas Parnell, began an experiment in 1927 to illustrate that everyday materials can exhibit quite surprising properties."

-- http://www.physics.uq.edu.au/pitchdrop/pitchdrop.shtml

The idea is to demonstrate that pitch, a tar derivitive, is actually liquid at room temperature, just a bit thick (100 billion times more viscous than water). So far it has dripped eight times ... or has it?

"When Parnell set up the demonstration in 1927 he could not have foreseen that during the gestation years of the eighth drop the University would decide to air-condition the two large lecture theatres in whose foyer the pitch resides, thus reversing the drop's seasonal experiences. That drop became by far the largest in the series, and when the time arrived for it to fall there was insufficient depth to the bottom of the beaker below for it to suffer a complete break.

"We now face a terrible ethical dilemma. With the ninth drop already forming, do we cut the cord that ties (so that the new drop has a fair go) and perhaps also raise the funnel to a greater height above the beaker, in anticipation of another large drop forming, or do we leave Parnell's experiment undisturbed?"

-- http://www.physics.uq.edu.au/pitchdrop/mainstone.html

This may something that those contemplating pitch-based implementations of water clocks should take into consideration. Would there be space in the 10K clock's lobby for such a device? Would bets on whether the next drip would fall on a day named after a Norse god during a month named after a Roman emporer be considered socially important?

Interesting article about predictions - dated 1st January 2003.
It includes some of the bets that have been posted on this very site.

Take a look:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/science/20030101-9999_1c1predict.html

Christophe

Thanks for the pointer, Christophe.

...for major improvements on the Long Bets website, coming imminently.

Major new features on the Long Bets site:

Voting

Predictions

Low entry cost

Voting... On every Bet and Prediction you can now vote ---ONCE!---on which side you think will prove right. Your vote becomes part of the ongoing tally. Your name, vote, and date of vote become part of the permanent record for that Prediction or Bet. Once your Vote is made, you cannot change it. Votes with invalid names will be removed from the roster and the tally.

Predictions... For $50 one-time cost, your Prediction (once approved) is displayed permanently on this site, along with votes and discussion about it. Any Prediction can become a Bet, if the Predictor agrees to stakes with a Challenger, and the Bet is approved.

Lower Bet limit... The minimum Long Bet stakes is now $200 for each side. (Since the Predictor paid $50 for publishing the Prediction, the stakes from the Predictor's side of the Bet is $50 less.)

For detalils, see the revamped RULES.

Comment welcome...

Jeff Bezos of Amazon made the intial grant last year with which the Long Bets website was built, and a second grant this year for the new improved incarnation.

As with the first version, the work was done by William Pietri and James Home, with Catherine Bacon, Alexander Rose, and Kurt Bollacker in the thick of the process.

The new limit is praiseworthy. Kilodollars have been scarce lately.

Thomas Holaday's 2-year Prediction on Osama bin Laden is On The Record, and so is Douglas Hewes' 22-year Prediction about implanted identity devices.

Announcing the newly issued U.S. patent
concerning ethical artificial intelligence entitled:
Inductive Inference Affective Language Analyzer
Simulating Artificial Intelligence (patent No. 6,587,846)
by inventor/author John E. LaMuth M. S. - issued 7/1/2003.
As implied in its title, this innovation is the 1st affect-
ive language analyzer incorporating ethical/motivational
terms, serving in the role of interactive computer
interface. It enables a computer to reason and speak in an
ethical fashion, serving in roles specifying sound human
judgement: such as public relations or security functions.
This innovation is formally based on a multi-level
hierarchy of the traditional groupings of virtues, values,
and ideals, collectively arranged as subsets within a
hierarchy of metaperspectives - as partially depicted below.

Glory--Prudence . . . Honor--Justice
Providence--Faith . . . Liberty--Hope
Grace--Beauty . . . Free-will--Truth
Tranquility--Ecstasy . . Equality--Bliss

Dignity--Temperance . . Integrity--Fortitude
Civility--Charity . . . . Austerity--Decency
Magnanim.--Goodness . . Equanimity--Wisdom
Love--Joy . . . . . . Peace--Harmony

The systematic organization underlying this ethical
hierarchy allows for extreme efficiency in programming,
eliminating much of the associated redundancy, providing
a precise determination of motivational parameters at
issue during a given verbal interchange.
This AI platform is organized as a tandem-nested expert
system, composed of a primary affective-language analyzer
overseen by a master control-unit (that coordinates the
verbal interactions over real time). Through an elaborate
matching procedure, the precise motivational parameters
are accurately determined (defined as the passive-monitoring
mode). This basic determination, in turn, serves as the
basis for a response repertoire tailored to the computer
(the true AI simulation mode). This innovation is completely
novel in its ability to simulate emotionally charged language:
an achievement that has previously eluded AI researchers due
to the lack of an adequate model of motivation in general.
As such, it represents a pure language simulation, effectively
bypassing many of the limitations plaguing current robotic
research. Affiliated potential applications extend to the
roles of switchboard/receptionist and personal
assistant/companion (in a time-share mode).
Although only a cursory outline of applications is possible for
this (90 page) patent, a more detailed treatment is posted at:
www.ethicalvalues.com The direct US Patent link is found at:
http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?patentnumber=6587846
Sincerely
John E. LaMuth - M. S.

fax: 586-314-5960
P.O. Box 105
Lucerne Valley, CA 92356

http://www.ethicalvalues.com

*******************

Futurist article calling for the restructing of the economy to compensate for the massive unemployment that will be caused by humanoid robots. Incorporates many of the themes discussed here.

[ http://www.marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm ]

For many years, the study of strange phenomena has been met with ridicule by a large percentage of the public, with thoise involved being heralded as little more than "ghost-busters".

I am pleased to announce, that The Phantom or Fraud Project in the UK (www.phantomorfraud.com) has now brought together some of the greatest names in science, to work with the better paranormal investigators, to move research years forward, and to attempt to finally answer the questions that have puzzled all since the birth of time.

We are now hoping that the business community will assist us by offering donations and grants to help fund this work which will include the invention and production of new technology to test and hopefully bring a conclusion to the research of life after death, NDE's, telepathy, ESP, inter-dimensional gateways, clairvoyancy and of course "ghosts"!

Please write to me if you are interested in learning more about our work - ross@galaxi.tv

Ross Hemsworth
FOUNDER
Paranormal Science
www.phantomorfraud.com
www.paranormalscience.com

You can listen to it online with RealAudio, at:
http://www.marketplace.org/

Click Marketplace archive for Aug. 6, and scroll to about minute 22 in the program.

I was re-reading the late John Brunner's science-fiction novel Stand on Zanzibar today and noticed that his record as a predictor is actually not bad. He wrote this novel in 1968, and apparently did a great deal of homework in the physical, biological and social sciences while writing - and it shows.

I took a few minutes to draw up lists of things John Brunner predicted would happen in his novel by 2010:

predictions made by John Brunner in Stand on Zanzibar (1968, Ballantine, New York):

predictions which have been realized:
widespread use of genetic engineering in consumer and industrial products;
extensive mapping of the human genome;
use of genetic engineering techniques to confer un-natural colors to mammals (glow-in-the-dark mice in real life; in the book, it was red, purple and green dogs, among other things);
use of commercial airliners for commuting to and from work;
widespread use of international satellite television networks for news and entertainment (CNN, Sky News, al-Jazeera in real life; Engrelay Satelserv and Reuters VideoAsia in the book);
“designer” (illicit) drugs with chemical structure and pharmaceutical properties unknown at the time the book was written;
reversion of Indonesia (referred to as “Yatakang” in the book) to right-wing or centrist government;
supercomputers so densely constructed as to require cooling by liquid helium (Crays in real life, Shalmaneser in the book);
widespread online access to reference information from home and libraries through the telephone network;
widespread change of sexual and family relationship norms and mores in industrialized societies;
local restaurants which accept orders through the telephone/computer network and deliver to your home;
China eclipsing Russia as a military threat to the United States;
widespread adoption of military weapons and tactics (“SWAT” teams) by local police forces to deal with riots and other forms of violent public disorder;
multinational corporations with resources exceeding those of many small nations;
widespread commission of mass murder for little or no discernible motive by irrational individuals;
widespread dissemination of formulas for explosives, poisons, incendiaries and other means of mass destruction by pamphlet, circular, magazine and online information services;
widespread online access to literature;
widespread online access to pornography;
acts of mass destruction - terrorism - committed as political or religious protest;
presence on American soil of organized bands of terrorist saboteurs;
economic and political integration of Europe as a "super state" (in progress);
screening potential parents for genetically transmissible diseases or defects;
majority rule in South Africa;
hydrogen/oxygen fuel cell technology usable in automobiles;
military side arms which can fire very small missiles with explosive warheads (the US Army’s OICW assault rifle/dialable range 20mm grenade launcher in real life, the “kazow” in the book);
a technology for mining some metals from the bottom of the sea which has problems with profitability;
Territorial expansion of China into the Western Pacific (in real life, this is evidenced by the construction of military bases by China in the disputed Spratly and Paracel island chains);
widespread use of atomic clock standards in commercial clocks and watches;

predictions from Stand on Zanzibar which have not yet been realized (the book’s set in 2010, so Brunner still has some time):
eugenic legislation to coercively prevent birth of children with genetically transmitted or somatic defects, including state-mandated sterilization and abortion;
widespread legalization/”decriminaliztion” of marijuana and other psychedelic drugs;
self-aware computer(s);
a subculture of people who commit sabotage of public transportation, water mains, other parts of the “infrastructure” as a hobby;
widespread use of hydrogen/oxygen fuel cell technology in automobiles;
commercial power generation by nuclear fusion
inhabited bases for scientific research on the Moon
orbital weapons platforms (as far as we know);
rapid transit by electrically accelerated trains in evacuated tunnels;
“pocket nukes” using less stable fissile materials than do standard nuclear weapons;
outlawing of tobacco altogether in the US and other industrialized nations;
Puerto Rico requesting and being granted US statehood;
Request for by and granting of US statehood to the Sulu archipelago in the Phillipine Islands;
Outbreak of open hostilities between the US and the People’s Republic of China in the Pacific;
covering of Manhattan Island by a large, single geodesic dome;
elimination of internal-combustion engines and most personally-owned vehicles nationwide in US.

This list is not exhaustive or definitive by any means, just a way of starting a discussion and honoring the memory of John Brunner; whether one agreed with his politics or not (I didn't, particularly), his contribution to futurism and science fiction is undoubted.

I read the article (http://www.marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm) and was impressed with the reasoning, especially as one development Marshall Brain mentions, automation of airliners, has come true here in Denver. Denver International Airport has just announced that automated landings and takeoffs will be routine on one of its runways.

As far as humanoid robots are concerned, I also agree that Honda wouldn't be burning up money on ads and commercials for a 'droid that isn't even commercially available yet unless they expected to sell just one heck of a lot of them fairly soon. Now, replacing the UPS guy with a 'droid is a stretch - the US Air Force and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Administration have been working on automated driving for decades, and unless they classified any successes they've had lately, that's still a ways off.

Then again, who better than Honda to come up with a way to automate driving? If they succeed, they will push GM and Ford totally off the map.

Bet No. 8 is now history. The Red Sox won the World Series before the US men's soccer team won the World Cup. Ted Danson's bet on the Sox prevailed, and his argument proved exactly right--- all the Red Sox had to do was beat the Yankees. The winnings will go to Danson's choice of charity, The American Oceans Campaign.

Back in August 2003 Brian Eno predicted what actually came to pass in the November 2004 US Presidential election. And his argument spelled out much of what happened.

Bet 129 is resolved. I was the losing Bettor. I have summarized what I think happened in the election, and the prospects now in America, in the Discussion with the Bet.

Eno's charity choice is the Exploratorium in San Francisco. It will receive the stakes of the Bet--- $1,000 plus interest. That part I am delighted by.

The communicational factors underlying mental illness have finally been
resolved in the ground-breaking new book - Communication Breakdown: Decoding the Riddle of Mental Illness - edited by John E. LaMuth M.S. Each of the major categories of mental illness is incorporated into a unified
communicational dynamic: where dysfunctional behavior patterns can
accurately be determined, leading to effective resolution.
This communicational approach is intended as an adjunct to currently
available treatment regimens, adding a further crucial tool to the
repertoire of the mental health practitioner, wherein enhancing the
potential for timely intervention. This new system helps increase awareness
of dysfunctional patterns of communication, further highlighting
trigger-factors that can precipitate behavioral outbreaks. Here, the 56
different classifications of mental illness breaks down into the eight forms
of the personality disorders, eight forms of the neuroses, and twenty forms
each for the mood disorders and schizophrenia: as partially depicted below:

Narcissistic Personality >>> Obsession Neurosis
Confabulatory Euphoria >>> Confab. Paraphrenia
Enthusiastic Euphoria >>> Proskinetic Catatonia
Non-Participatory Euphoria >>> Silly Hebephrenia

Borderline Personality >>> Phobia Neurosis
Suspicious Depression >>> Fantastic Paraphrenia
Self-Torturing Depression >>> Negativistic Catatonia
Non-Participatory Depression >>> Insipid Hebephrenia

Dependent Personality >>> Compulsion Neurosis
Pure Mania >>> Expansive Paraphrenia
Unproductive Euphoria >>> Parakinetic Catatonia
Hypochondriacal Euphoria >>> Eccentric Hebephrenia

Avoidant Personality >>> Anxiety Neurosis
Pure Melancholy >>> Incoherent Paraphrenia
Harried Depression >>> Affected Catatonia
Hypochondriacal Depression >>> Autistic Hebephrenia

The extensive terminology (for the psychoses) in large part is due to a
pre-existing system of nomenclature pioneered by German clinician, Karl
Leonhard. The nomenclature for the personality disorders and the neuroses is
alternately contained within the specifications of the Diagnostic and
Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (IV). Indeed, this advanced degree of
detail should prove quite a revelation for those more at home with the
American model of the psychoses, where manic-depressive disease and
schizophrenia are generally treated as unitary entities. This enhanced range
of detail, however, ultimately allows the current communicational approach
to be proposed. In light of the chances of being impacted by
mental illness at some time during one's lifetime, this communicational
approach to the mental disorders proves an extremely timely issue, and one
holding considerable promise to those thusly afflicted.
Sincerely
- John E. LaMuth
Editor-in-Chief
Member APA

More information at:
www.angelfire.com/rnb/fairhaven/cbd.html

Publication Date - Sept. 2004

Greetings Fellow List-Members

I am pleased to announce the debut of my new released publication -

A Diagnostic Classification of the Emotions:
A Three-Digit Coding System for Affective Language.

As implied in its title, this new 450 page reference work
endeavors to fill a void in terms of AI research into the emotions: proposing a master system of classification for themes of an affective nature. In addition to the basic human emotions, this all-inclusive system extends to include the higher social emotions characterized by the virtues and values specified within the Western philosophical tradition: wherein formally specifying the enhanced degree of interconnectedness linking these diverse categories, the outline of which is partially depicted below:

(300 - 399) ............................ (400 - 499)
+ + VICES OF EXCESS .............. MENTAL ILLNESS
(Excessive Virtue) .............. (Transitional Excess)

(100 - 199) ............................ (200 - 299)
+ MAJOR VIRTUES .............. LESSER VIRTUES
(Virtuous Mode) .............. (Transitional Virtue)
___________________________________

0 - .............. NEUTRALITY STATUS
___________________________________
(500 - 599) ............................ (600 - 699)
- VICES OF DEFECT .............. CRIMINALITY
(Absence Of Virtue) .............. (Transitional Defect)

(700 - 799) ............................ (800 - 899)
- - HYPERVIOLENCE .............. HYPERCRIMINALITY
(Excessive Defect) .............. (Transit. Hyperviolence)

This new coding system further serves as a valuable adjunct
with respect to an ethical simulation of emotional AI. Indeed, based upon a limited number of elementary assumptions; namely, the principles of instrumental conditioning and the concept of the metaperspective, the ascending hierarchy of stepwise transformations ultimately accounts for the entire 1,040-part complement of
individual terms.

More info is posted at:
www.charactervalues.org

Sincerely
John E. LaMuth

That's very interesting.

While I'm no expert in psychology, I have a BA in it and continue to read the major psychologists and philosophers.

For sometime, I've kind of been suspicous of many current classifications of psychic state. Much of it is Christian and only has relevance for life in the modern age. That's very useful for the moment although I believe only a great transformation of society could lead to any useful quelling of psychic energy.

Except for times before written history (pre-agrarian and pre-feudal), there hasn't been much time for life without tradition. Especially since the rise of industrialism, life generates a great deal of nervousness. People simply don't have the chance to release any of the energy that's given to them. Violence, domestic violence, road rage--such signs of dissatisfaction are trivial indicators that will get much worse as the centuries go by; they'll likely be replaced by rioting and perhaps a complete collapse of society.

I won't mind such a thing happening. I was reading some Jung on personality development the other day. The opportunity for people to develop themselves doesn't currently present themselves to any of us. Work prevents us from having any time; education provides us with many barriers to living any way other than how we currently do.

I really wouldn't mind going back to pre-historic times. I wouldn't mind the violence, the human sacrifice, and the complete openness of human emotion. At least we'd be free.

I originally posted the 100 qubit prediction and progress is going well towards that goal and beyond.

Dwave Systems has a roadmap to well over 1000 qubits by the end of 2008.

1000 qubit roadmap

They will demonstrate a 16 qubit computer on Feb 13, 2007

Here are 49 and counting articles on quantum computers and quantum algorithms

The Dwave blog is here

Trapped ion and a dozen other approaches to quantum computers are also making progress. Some of them may be more suited to certain niches or to ultimately superior scaling.

Quantum computers will drive nanoscale technology, nanotechnology and biotechnology and improve logistics for regular companies.