The Bet: By 2050, we will receive intelligent signals from outside our solar system.

http://www.longbets.org/bet/10

Does this include from humans, or just from any other inteligent life that MIGHT exist out there?

This looks like an unpredictable random event there's no point in betting on. Does anyone want to propose a bet that "By the year 2050 someone will have rolled snake eyes with an honest pair of dice 100 times in succession"?

Since, according to a story on CNN.com, the Voyager I space craft should reach the edge of our solar system in a few years, wouldn't that count? I guess one could argue that the signals from the craft are not "Intelligent" but they derive from a creation of an "Intelligent" species.

Still, the fact that we will be getting our own signals from outside the solar system is pretty cool in its own right, even if it does not fulfill the criteria for this bet.

The bet is not truly a completely "random event" bet. To site your example rolling snake eyes 100 times in a row, the likeliness of this event happening in 50 years is entirely determined by the resources put into rolling dice 100 times in row. If you create a government agency with 10000 people rolling dice 9-5 everyday day for the next 50 years, I might take that bet.

Similarly, if the original bet stated that intelligent signals would reach our solar system by 2050, then this may be a random event (arguable), but with SETI (and other such organizations) constantly fighting for funding and developing new technologies to search for signals (SETI@HOME for example), this is not truly a random bet. I may believe that signals will never be picked up in the ranges being searched or with the methods being employed, and thus, be willing to take that bet. Or I may believe SETI will lose funding and the interest of the community and we will just stop listening.

go to disclosureproject.org

The Disclosure Project is a nonprofit research project working to fully disclose the facts about UFOs, extraterrestrial intelligence, and classified advanced energy and propulsion systems. They have over 400 government, military, and intelligence community witnesses testifying to their direct, personal, first hand experience with UFOs, ETs, ET technology, and the cover-up that keeps this information secret.

Would the Disclosure Project care to make a Long Bet on the subject of of UFOs, I wonder? Being a nonprofit it can list itself as the beneficiary if it wins.

Or, by 2050 it will be discovered that we ALREADY HAVE been receiving intelligent signals, we just haven't known how to decode them correctly.

Who decides if we have or have not received transmissions? Some might say we have already received, I am not one of them. Various governments must be taking up the task of SETI, but how does one really know anything? Because it is written somewhere, as Wittgenstein says? Regards, Chip

Bet: By 2050 we will receive intelligent signals from outside our solar system.

Does this bet imply there is a decided lack corresponding intelligence on Earth to detect, translate, understand or benefit from exo-solar system communication?

Or, that by 2050 current scientific (mechanical) thinking and corresponding hardware still be used in attempts to search for sources of exo-solar system intelligence?

Would a correct bet be by 2050 western science and resulting mechanical thinking will finally developed appropriate receptors to discover existence of these sources of intelligence?

Alert and aware individuals and groups receive exo-solar system intelligence every day and have for thousands of years.

herenow

“think out of the box before someone accidentally shuts the lid”

"Some might say we have already received, I am not one of them. Various governments must be taking up the task of SETI, but how does one really know anything?"

From a probabilistic approach you could say the following.

Is the majority of SETI research done honestly and in the public domain?

If yes, and to the best of my knowledge the answer is yes, then the government can only be hiding it if they 'lucked in' and the public domain efforts 'lucked out'.

In other words, it is my opinion that it is most likely that if the public domain doesn't have it - the government(s) don't have it.

That doesn't even include that it is highly likely that a government secret that big would conclusively leak.

I was thinking along similar lines but I realized a basic flaw on the part of the instigator of the bet. Basically, the wording. He went out of his way (of sorts) to include the word "signals". If he was not so sure of the fact that we would receive (or have already received) any signal, I would think that he would have worded his bet more carefully; or at the least word it in a way that would not present such a loophole that could include (or be interpreted as) at least two distinct intelligent civilizations.

To confirm my suspicions, I looked up the current definition of intelligent. And my results have generated the conclusion that Voyager I would qualify. The definition, as given by
Merriam-Webster's collegiate dictionary, is as follows...

Main Entry: in.tel.li.gent
Pronunciation: in-'te-l&-j&nt
Function: adjective
Etymology: Latin intelligent-, intelligens, present participle of intelligere, intellegere to understand, from inter- + legere to gather, select -- more at LEGEND
Date: 1509
1 a : having or indicating a high or satisfactory degree of intelligence and mental capacity b : revealing or reflecting good judgment or sound thought : SKILLFUL
2 a : possessing intelligence b : guided or directed by intellect : RATIONAL
3 a : guided or controlled by a computer; especially : using a built-in microprocessor for automatic operation, for processing of data, or for achieving greater versatility -- compare DUMB 7 b : able to produce printed material from digital signals

Pay attention to the second and third definitions specifically as I give some brief facts on Voyager I


(http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,4149,33865,00.asp) Emphasis on the second definition:

In a remarkable panoply of engineering talent, patience, and government dedication, NASA successfully reprogrammed the Voyager 1 spacecraft this week at a distance twice that of the planet Pluto.

The National Aeronautics and Space Agency was forced to order the spacecraft to its backup systems, after discovering that the performance of the attitude-control system had degraded over time. If the system failed, the spacecraft would lose its fix on the Earth, sending its signals elsewhere into space.

(http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/database/MasterCatalog?sc=1977-084A)
Emphasis on the third definition:

Communications were provided through the high-gain antenna with a low-gain antenna for backup. The high-gain antenna supported both X-band and S-band downlink telemetry. Voyager was the first spacecraft to utilize X-band as the primary telemetry link frequency. Data could be stored for later transmission to Earth through the use of an on-board digital tape recorder...

Voyager, because of its distance from Earth and the resulting time-lag for commanding, was designed to operate in a highly-autonomous manner. In order to do this and carry out the complex sequences of spacecraft motions and instrument operations, three interconnected on-board computers were utilized. The Computer Command Subsystem (CCS) was responsible for storing commanding for the other two computers and issuing the commands at set times. The Attitude and Articulation Control Subsystem (AACS) was responsible for controlling spacecraft attitude and motions of the scan platform. The Flight Data Subsystem (FDS) controlled the instruments, including changes in configuration (state) or telemetry rates. All three computers had redundant components to ensure continued operations. The AACS included redundant star trackers and Sun sensors as well.

In conclusion, it could be convincingly said that Voyager I could be qualified as "intelligent signals outside of our solar system".

Yo, I'm about ta bounce! Peace!

I'd think you'd want to add at least two more conditions:

-Not from humans or anything built by humans. Otherwise our own space probes would qualify - if not any existing ones then others that could be launched before 2050.

-Reception of such a signal must be independently confirmed and published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal (or its electronic equivalent). Otherwise people can claim we have already made contact, which might conceivably be true. Without independent confirmation and peer review, however, such extraordinary claims cannot be generally accepted.

Another possibility would be to replace 'from outside the solar system' with 'from a non-human civilization'. This would cover the existing bet, but would include the reception from an alien probe or spacecraft that is already in the solar system. This would be just as exciting as a signal from outside the solar system.

"Dr. Jill Tarter, long-time director of SETI, has announced a reversal of decades of official policy. She has now stated clearly that finding evidence of ET activity in our solar system should not be considered unthinkable."

Would discovery of ET artifacts in this solar system be considered an intelligent signal?
rose

Perhaps the main intent might be 'by 2050 we will have incontrovertible evidence of the existence of at least one non-human civilization'. This might be
- Detecting an artificial signal from outside the solar system
- Detecting a signal from a an alien probe within the solar system
- Finding an artifact in the Solar system (perhaps even on Earth) that is clearly from another civilization

Any of these would prove that intelligent life elsewhere has happened at least once, and would be equally exciting from that viewpoint.

Would this crop circle be considered an intelligent signal?

Here's a commentary and image from CAUS and Sir Peter Gershon:

from PAG E-NEWS - Special Edition - 08-17-2002

CROP CIRCLE PHENOMENON DEPT.
Well now look what we have here - another "face" near Chilbolton but this time it is of an ET. Bill Hamilton, the International, believes it may contain a "profound message that needs to be decoded." Mark Andrews writes that "the formation shows an image of almost photographic quality accompanied with what might be follow-up coded information to enhance the original SETI message. The circular pattern may also have a correlation with the Dresde Codex (Mayan Calendar).

The crop circle itself is surrounded by radio masts and is over the hill from one of the worlds most magnificent cathedrals in Winchester. One has to marvel at the complexities in this new circle."

http://www.cropcircleconnector.com/2002/Crabwood/crabwood2002a.html

herenow

and how!

When that Verizon guy asked "can you here me now?" For ETs, the answer may be "No". (But they won't answer because they can't hear it anyway.)

That Verizon cell phone uses a spread spectrum technology called CDMA. If you do not have a proper codes in your receiver, the transmitting signal looks like noise to you. There are also this thing called "smart antenna", which is able to beam its signal directly to you. Other people nearby won't be able to receive it. In addition, our wireless communications use less and less transmit power as our receiver technologies improve.

These are the technologies today, packed inside that little device on your belt clip, called cell phone. If the aliens have their SETI programs, I bet they will not be able to detect us easily.

Radio communication only exits on earth for about 150 years. In 50 years, we may be able to upgrade our communication equipment to more efficient ones. (The problem is $$ not technologies.) So, in the 4.5B-year earth history, there is only this 200-year window open for ET to hear us. (The earth may live on for another 5B, providing human won't destroy it first. But in that case, no signal will be sent from earth either.) So, even if you aim at the right planet, the chances that you to hear anything is only 50 million to 1.

I believe there are lifes out there, just I belive the chance for us to hear from them are slim.

Optical and RF SETI is admirable and engrossing, but I suspect we will never hear or see a thing. Not that we shouldn't look or listen, but I fear that the negative results will give cause to believe that we are alone in this universe. Which, I firmly believe we are not. We've been blasting out VHF, UHF, radio, radar signals for a mere blink of an eye. As we become more efficient (as technology advances) it would appear to an observer in some other far off solar system that we've stopped sending signals. So, even if the galaxy is teeming with life, and even if every civilization mimics our own (which is improbable that it would), that narrow time frame in which they are "noisy" is so small that we'd be lucky to catch it at all. I think SETI will be less than a one in a million shot to find a signal - outside of incidental signals, which they may have already found ("WOW", et al) but cannot be reproduced. Life? I think it's everywhere...

I think it's far, far more likely that any incoming signals we would notice would not be mere 'noise' that escaped from an alien technological civilization, but rather signals intentionally broadcast with the hopes of reaching other civilizations.

Because the signals would have to be powerful, and, odds are, very widely broadcast, it's most likely that they would have to be from a civilization that has a great deal of energy at its disposal, ie, most likely one a good deal more technologically advanced than we are.

They would have to put a lot of effort -- by our standards -- into it. They would be broadcasting in several different media: radio, coherent light, who knows what else (gravity waves?). They would be methodically aiming their broadcasts at likely targets. Their broadcasts would be carefully constructed so as not to be misinterpreted as noise.

Consider the famous plaque attached to Voyager. An alien broadcast created in a similar frame of mind is what we're most likely to receive and recognize. We should be looking in uncluttered wavelengths (since they'd be smart enough to use those) and watching for distinct, repeated signals -- ones emulating a series of simple prime numbers, frex, since that (as far as we know) would not be a naturally generated signal.

And, in fact, some SETI-type projects look for exactly that kind of thing. Trying to pick up accidental signals is a fool's game. They'd be extremely hard to detect, and the civilization that produced them would be much changed or long gone.

I do want to believe and have voted in favour of the prediction based on that.

We have all the tools and the intelligence to provide for all. The contact will provide the will, even if the will is as a result of ET ordering us to clean up our collective act as he/she looks down the barrel of a gun.

And I can't think of anything short of the 2nd coming that would reinforce faith in deity.

I don't think that we know enough about the universe to speculate intelligently on the existence of extraterrestrial life, let alone the odds of receiving signals that are definitely evidence of intelligence (as opposed to "pulsars," the blivit in the B ring, etc).

A technical quibble - is the bet won if we've been bathed in extra-terrestrial signals all along and just didn't know how to interpret them? To the people making the signals, the problem may seem as elementary as not switching to "FM" when you'd like to hear public radio....

Here's an interesting prototype bet.. a hundred years from now, the Galactic Communications Commission shows up on the front entrance to the UN Building on the East River and demands we do something about all that TV and radio noise we're pumping into interstellar space....

This bet touches on a corollary to the Drake Equation I've been thinking about for several years, which might allow us to put empirical bounds on the density of intelligent life based on the length of time it takes for us to actually begin interstellar communication with an alien intelligence.

Unlike the Drake Equation (N = R* x fp x ne x fl x fi x fc x L ) I wanted to use a different, empirical approach:

Pc = "call" paranoia factor. Zero would mean a society is so fearful they send zero transmissions out, 1 would mean they actively seek communication by sending directed transmissions to nearby stars

Pr = "respond" paranoia factor. Again, zero means they won't respond even if they hear us, 1 means they respond immediately, with gusto.

Tr = recognition time. Time in years it takes for a civilization to recognize a message as intelligent. I struggle with whether to separate out another factor which would account for the technical ability to listen, with how many ears, etc. but have no clear idea how to incorporate this, so for the moment I'll leave it simple but fraught with unknowns with respect to size of listening devices, power of amplification, and the imagination and desire to listen on the part of the alien intelligence.

T2 = time in years from the beginning of radio communication within our civilization until first two-way radio contact is made (i.e. both sides know of the existence of the other)

To this, I need to define a few more global constants:
LD = local density of stars
GD = average galactic density of stars
Vg = volume of our galaxy

So, Drake's number N = Vg* GD/(LD*Pc*Pr*(4/3*pi*((T2-Tr)/2)^3))

My equation doesn't really become hugely useful until we make contact and begin assessing the unknown probability factors and recognition times, but until then, it can be used to put upper bounds on Drake's number N, based on various assumptions of Pc, Pr, and Tr in the following manner:

If you assume the closest civilization to us has Paranoia factors of 1 and Recognition times of 0, then the current volume of empty (unoccupied by other civilizations) space has a radius of about 29 light years.

It seems more appropriate to me to select Paranoia and Recognition factors based on our own civilization, and grabbing a number out of a hat, I'd put Pc=0.1 , Pr=0.7 (I don't think we'd start sending messages without a healthy public debate, but the world is a large place and I don't think we can prevent it from happening) and Tr = 5.

Using these numbers, and selecting 1945 as the beginning of large scale radio communication on Earth, I would set a very rough estimate of an upper bound on the local density of intelligent civilizations at about

1/(0.1*0.7*4/3*pi*((58-5)/2)^3) = 0.000183 civilizations per cubic light year

(This is an upper bound because we haven't heard from them yet, so they might not exist, and the longer it takes, it is reasonable to assume, the larger the average distance between stars with intelligent life.)

In other words, approximately one civilization per each 5500 cubic light years, or a sphere about 22 LY in diameter. On the other hand, it also implies that the nearest civilization could perhaps be only 14 LY away, as that is a large enough radius to double the volume, they're just afraid to talk back to us.

Food for thought.

Mark - Have you seriously thought - Why would an adavnced civilization want to send out radio signals? Is this more of our own(failed)"Human Charcteristics" of ego that needs to share the accomplishments with anyone out there?
If that civilization is sooo advanced - why do they need to send out radio signals? Really.

On the other hand, it also implies that the nearest civilization could perhaps be only 14 LY away

Ah, but you're talking starting positions. If even only a tiny fraction of those other civilizations are of a mind to send out probes and robots and whatnot, then their spheres will be far, far larger. And, in fact, should overlap ours by now.

Imagine a civilization whose home star is 200 LYA but which arose a hundred million years ago. They build self-repairing and/or self-replicating robot probes and send them out. Even with technology only slightly better than our own, the probes should have arrived here by now. (And maybe they have, although we don't seem to see them.)

The answer doesn’t lie with “them” per se, it lies with us. I thought is was very creative to address the question from a Drake’s Equation and Hawkens perspective. Thinking about it from a technological standpoint is compelling but it is based on to simplistic of an assumption - that assumption is that the intelligent signal will be arbitrary and not specific. I believe it is a limiting assumption.

This assumption was created with an image in mind of how we would communicate (and in the case of SETI are communicating) to the stars given our present technology and our understanding of potentially enabling interstellar communications technology that will come in the near-term future (i.e. by 2050).

If we frame this on communicating based on technology (even advanced technology) or the best case possibilities afforded us by Drake’s Equation we are explicitly stating (via assumption) that the communicate be at first technological opportunity to do so. I strongly believe and hope that something deeper is at play!!!

I believe that there is intelligent life out there that can TODAY communicate with us. (BTW-I’m not really a Trek-kie). I believe it is an advanced intelligence working within a moral and ethical framework that is very profound. When Columbus first came to the Americas he inadvertently brought death to many because of germs and disease - as we all know. I use this analogy to state that there is a responsibility that an advanced intelligence must accept when communicating with other intelligent species.

The initiating intelligence MUST ensure we are ready and able to handle the communication. If we are not, the consequences could be catastrophic thus nullifying the reason to communicate in the first place. I would hope that one day our planet has the opportunity to communicate with other intelligent life and would have seriously thought through the implications before initiating contact.

Again, the answer doesn’t lie with “them” per se, it lies with us. I am voting yes on the question, we will receive a signal - because we will be ready for it. We are not ready today..... the situation in the Middle East, the threat of global terrorism and the fact that over 65% of the planet is illiterate by today’s technological standards of literacy. In all honesty, today we don’t universally believe in the capacity for good in our fellow man... that’s sad.

When we are ready “they” will let us know by reaching out to us

Sidebar Just for FUN! - I hope that somewhere within this moral framework are protections for intelligence life (like ours) from Galactic predators championed by some advanced intelligence acting as a policing agent ;-)

there is no chance of recieving any kinds of intelligent contact from terrestrial beings because of the sheer distances between the celestial bodies in the universe, nothing in the universe is faster than the speed of light which is 300,000 metres a second. at this speed it takes light from the sun 8 mins to reach Earth this means light from the nearest star beyond the sun takes years and years to reach Earth. the light we recieve from other galaxies is light that is nearly as old as the universe and was emited billions of years ago. I do believe there is intelligent beings in the universe but think they will be too far away to make contact.

Thesis: SETI should only find something very obvious when it first tries out a new communications technology, or it will never find anything.

Argument: The more advanced a communications technology is, the more efficient and more complex it is, sending power only where it will be received. Generally newer generation technologies (like spread spectrum, UWB and cognitive radio) are undetectable by the prior generations of technologies. Marconi could not have detected that many modern radios just 100 years in his future were even there. We won't detect, by accident, the transmissions of beings with highly advanced radio technology.

This leaves detecting deliberate signals. This should be easy, as the advanced beings know much better how to generate signals and aim them at stars. They understand our primitive technology, we do not understand their advanced technology. If they wanted they could make the stars blink, visible to the human eye.

SETI presupposes there are highly advanced beings who want us to receive their signals, but yet they can't do a very good job of it, so we must hunt deep in the noise with greater and greater precision and hard work to detect their signals. There are no advanced beings good enough to give us a really good signal.

It is, however possible, there are advanced beings able to signal us, but who do not wish to signal such an early technological civilization. As such, they are broadcasting very obvious signals -- but only obvious to a receiver of sufficient technological advancement.

This suggests that new receiver technologies should be used to search the skies when they are invented, but it should not be necessary to search very hard.

Humans are only beginning to fully understand the language of homo sapiens written thousands of years ago on this planet. What makes us think that we will instantly recognize communication from a life form on another part of the universe transmitted from thousands of light years away? Not a chance.

In this huge universe there has to be some sort of life on another planet. Some place else there must be other intelligent life. If you play devils advocate you could say that how come there is intelligent life on another planet if there is so little on this planet.

Intelligent life is probably very rare in the universe, because animal life (large multicellular life) is probably rare. The book Rare Earth gives some reasons why. Consider our own planet, which has had life for 4 billion years, almost as long as the earth has had a solid surface. But there have been animals here for only 600M years, and technological life capable of sending radio signals for only 150 years. Our planet is probably much more hospitable than most.

The lifespan of technological civilizations may be short, making it unlikely that we will receive any signals.

There are enough galaxies that perhaps there is intelligent life somewhere -- but not near enough to send recognizable signals to the earth.

I know that the signal will be received in territory of Hungary but it happens after 2050 it happens where that in 2080. We still are not ready to learn the truth, we only crowd which it is easy to frighten and subject to a panic. Therefore even if it happens I do not think that goverment can tell to us about it so I advise to not think in this occasion and to live further in the closed world and to not think of such global things P.s. I saw UFO and it was not a Eath origin. With me there was a father and my best friend so illusion is excluded. To whom I tried to tell all about it did not trust me and only laughed. People are not ready for them it only fairy tales.

Does it count if a probe sent from Earth to outside the solar system then sends signals back to Earth?

But dealing with ET, I would think not. I do believe there is intelligent life out there, but the tiny timescales involved would make it difficult to happen by 2050.

There are several factors involved here.
1 - Has anyone "leaked" signals without intending us to find them? If we are to assume that they have entered the age of radio, then this is possible. But for us to receive them would mean they would have to be immensely powerful to overcome the noise, given that they originated at least several light years away.

Furthermore, if we didn't pick them up as soon as we started listening, but hope to pick them up soon, this means we are hoping they started transmitting around the time, or only several years before we started listening. In the billions of years the universe, or even just the Earth, has been around, that would be an amazing coincidence.

Of course the argument to what I just said is that as we get more and more technologically advanced and our listening ability improves, maybe we'll finally discover what was there all along.

2. Is someone deliberately sending us, or broadcasting a message and is waiting for someone like us to pick it up? I have the same arguments as above. Remember, in terms of the universe, the time-frame in which we have started looking for aliens is miniscule. The question is, have they been transmitting for thousands, or tens of thousands, or millions of years? Surely they don't know we have just, in the last century, started to look to the sky and consider life on other planets... To get close enough to know that, well they might as well just come down and visit us.

You see Sci-Fi makes one dodgy assumption about aliens, and that is that they will come almost immeadiately after we start thinking about them. Of course it's right to say we're more likely to find them after we start looking for them, but given the distances involved, and the limits to our technology, they'll have to be advertising their presence fairly loudly for us to have any hope in finding them anyway.

3. This kind of ties in with #1. What if, like us, they start [i]limiting[/i] their broadcasts? If an alien was listening out for signals accidentally leaked by us, then he would have a very short time-frame - in which to pick us up. With the rise of digital TV, and decline of analogue TV, we'll soon have stopped, or at least seriously limited our broadcasting of any sort of TV that they could have any hope of interpreting - they would have to know how to recognise it as an actual signal, and then decode it. If this should happen to radio (and it is... with FM and now DAB), then soon we'll no longer be broadcasting easily detectable signals... The aliens we are trying to detect may have made the switch thousands or millions of years ago, and may have made their broadcast so efficient that they aren't leaking signals. Therefore we are hoping to spot aliens who have only just discovered radio.

The main point I am trying to make is, the fact that we didn't detect as soon as we started listening leads me to believe that while it could happen in the next million years or so, I think it's unlikely to happen in the next 42...

One last thing, if 2050 passes and no sign of aliens, then the predictor will lose the bet. But what if in 2080 (or whenever secret government documents are declassified), it is revealed that we did, but it was covered up by the government... Will the result be reversed?

Today we have already reached so far from earth and by 2050 we will surely get signal from outside the solar system.And even we will be able to reply them.

Face up to it. We are alone. There is no god out there. There may be, may have been life capable of sending such a signal but by the time we receive it, or reply to it, it will probably be extinct. By the time it receives a human signal, humans will probably be extinct.

I would confidently take the bet, but I have to face it. By the time I am proved right, I will be extinct. There is no fun in shrouds.

Sorry

just Jack

no because we are already recieving messages from *out there*

The bet definitely needs re-wording to indicate its reference to non-human-origin intelligence.

Aside from that, it's NOT in the best interests of a society unable to defend itself to broadcast its position to the universe at large. A scrupulous alien civilization would likely subscribe to a policy of peaceful non-interference (Star Trek's Prime Directive), limited, explotative trade (European Colonists vs. Native American) or totalitarian societal management (Arthur C. Clarke's "Childhood's End").

We don't really need to describe what UNscrupulous alien civilizations might do to a technologically inferior race with explotable natural resources, do we?

voyager will leave the solar system and send a signal back, quite structured, data-dense, indicative of life